IDC: Cyberterror to hit in 2003

[Metgod]

Is this valid ? Just the way it's written is amusing. But anyhow.. will take a huge amount of bandwidth to do this. Better hope these 'cyber terrorists' can at least code a little.. and can get others to run their programs (IF that is their method).. And I really doubt that these goof balls will be able to breach many sites unless they are on the same server or unprotected network. Methinks that the most effective method would be a physical attack.. but even that won't knock everyone offline. Even attacks on root name servers wouldn't effect many folks. Core routers would probably be the most effective when talking about non-physical.. but anyhow..

some other stuff in the article.. one that makes me laugh.. Think Linux will eat Unix ? Don't count on it.. FreeBSD, NetBSD, and OpenBSD are quite good. And for security, OpenBSD is really tight. And let's not forget Solaris among others..

Other interesting stuff in the article but can't be bothered to go through them.. though others make me laugh too.

Comments ?


Met

http://news.com.com/2100-1001-977780.html?tag=fd_top

By Ed Frauenheim
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
December 12, 2002, 4:55 PM PT

A major cyberterrorism event will occur in 2003, a technology research
group predicted on Thursday, one that will disrupt the economy and
bring the Internet to its knees for at least a day or two.

The event could take the form of a denial of service attack, a network
intrusion or even a physical attack on key network assets, said John
Gantz, chief research officer of IDC. Gantz spoke during a
teleconference in which the research company laid out its annual
forecast of technology developments in the coming year.

"The war with Iraq will galvanize hackers," Gantz said.

IDC's list of 10 predictions included sunnier projections, too,
however. Chief among them was the company's view that spending on
information technology and telecommunications will grow by more than 6
percent next year, reaching $1.9 trillion. Gantz said current data on
U.S. IT spending and revenues from technology vendors worldwide are
encouraging.

IDC generates the list of 10 projections by polling its more-than-700
analysts. Gantz said the company is usually right with 7 out of its 10
predictions. Successful predictions from last year, he said, included
"streaming media will catch on," "corporations will reset security
plans" and "Web services hype reaches hysteria levels."

IDC guessed wrong about widespread use of digital identification
services such as Microsoft's Passport product. The company was also
off-target in predicting an IT industry recovery beginning in
mid-2002.

"We know in hindsight that's definitely not the case," Gantz said. "We
missed that one."

Other visions in IDC's crystal ball for 2003 are that sales of
midrange server computers will rebound to positive growth after a 20
percent contraction in 2002; that adoption of 64-bit computing will be
slow; and that the Linux operating system will snag market share from
the Unix operating system.

"We're saying that Linux will eat Unix," Gantz said.

According to IDC, a recent trend is companies deploying vital
commercial applications--such as stock exchange software--on clusters
of computers running Linux.

Other predictions from IDC include the following.

* The project-based IT services market will be flat or down again, as
 companies scale down project size and turn to IT outsourcing.

* Wireless local area networks will take off, which will delay the
 introduction of so-called third-generation wireless communications
 networks. IDC expects telecommunications carriers to use
 visitor-based networks--so-called "hot spots"--for high-speed
 Internet access.

* Telecommunications capital expenditures will drop again, by at least
 5 percent. But spending in emerging markets such as China, Malaysia,
 Indonesia, and Russia will grow significantly, and spending to
 support cellular services will grow.

* Online messaging will grow by 27 percent, with no guarantee that
 productivity will grow. The total number of emails sent will rise 30
 percent to 40 billion a day, and the number of corporate instant
 messaging users will double to more than 30 million. Spam and
 automatic alerts and notifications will grow to almost 40 percent of
 all email traffic. "There will be more spam in your life," Gantz
 said.

* Imaging will go digital, but the industry will still center on film.
 Digital images--from scanners, digital cameras and mobile
 devices--will surpass the number of film images captured per day by
 the end of the year. But because of factors including omnipresence
 and ease-of-use, film will remain relevant.

Apart from those 10 prophecies, Gantz said software growth will be a
relatively modest 7.5 percent worldwide. The hottest software sectors
will include security products and software that simplifies or manages
programs already in place, he said. What's more, IT outsourcing--in
which companies manage a client's IT operations or take over tasks
such as tech support--is the fastest-growing part of IT services,
boasting double-digit growth, Gantz said. The shift of IT work
offshore will continue, he said. If you're going to provide IT
outsourcing, "you're going to have to farm some of that work
overseas," Gantz said.

IDC also expects some major statistical thresholds to be surpassed in
the coming year:

* Cell phones installed: more than 1.5 billion * eMail boxes: more
than 1 billion * PCs installed: more than 600 million * Internet
users: more than 700 million * Mobile Internet users: more than 250
million * Broadband households: more than 80 million * IT spending:  
more than $900 billion * Telecom spending: more than $975 billion *
Internet commerce: more than $1.5 trillion.